Editor’s note: You’ll hear today from colleague and cycles trading expert Phil Anderson…
Phil has decades of experience predicting major market shifts… all based on an 18.6-year cycle that’s been driving the markets for centuries.
While folks were panicking about an “oncoming” recession back in early 2023, Phil was calm and certain… The cycle was perfectly clear: a major crash was still years off.
And it seems the mainstream media has finally caught on. Read on for the details from Phil…
Mainstream media is doing a full 180 on this…
First, everybody was expecting a recession. You heard about it everywhere.
It was not a question of whether it would happen… but how severe it would be… how many jobs would be lost… how long it would last.
Well, no more.
The U.S. economy is growing like crazy. It has outpaced the rest of the world, and it keeps surprising those “experts” who professed doom and gloom just a year ago.
Well, my knowledge of the 18.6-year real estate cycle guided me in the opposite direction…
We Knew That It Would Be All Right
Back in February 2023, I said:
Even if there is a slight downturn, there is nothing in my research or incoming data that suggests a structural weakness in the economy.
On the contrary, my 18.6-year cycle says the global economy will do well in the near term.
The cycle isn’t over… and it will not be for years.
Watch the media change the narrative this year from “imminent disaster” to “a soft landing is possible” to “sometime in the future, we will have a recession, but for now, it’s all good.”
And nobody (except for my readers) listened.
Well, now we’re in the “apology” stage… where experts try to understand why they were wrong.
Mainstream Media’s Apology Tour
Recently, from the Financial Times:
Over the past two years, most economists have predicted a US recession. Indeed, it has been the most widely anticipated recession that didn’t happen. Like Godot, it has been a no-show.
That became increasingly obvious at the start of this year. However, while most bailed on their gloomy recession forecasts, many predicted that the Federal Reserve would have to cut interest rates several times to avoid a recession if inflation continued to moderate. That prediction also looks to be wrong, and more economists are now talking about a “higher-for-longer” interest rate outlook.
Now economists are going back to their drawing boards to understand what went wrong… why they misread incoming economic data, and misguided millions of investors in the process.
Well, nothing went wrong.
At least as far as the 18.6-year real estate cycle is concerned.
In fact, economic events unfolded just as it predicted.
Liquidity remained ample… land and housing prices remained at high levels… unemployment was low…
Even “higher” interest rates were in line with their historical averages.
So, expecting a dramatic event based on mostly positive data was a mistake.
That was something everybody missed.
But my 18.6-year real estate cycle theory told me exactly how events would unfold. And I shared that knowledge with my readers.
I look forward to doing just the same, regardless of what everybody else says.
Regards,
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Phil Anderson
Contributing Editor, Inside Wall Street with Nomi Prins