Your editor’s back is sore…
It’s sore from our recent bouts of self-flagellation.
Even the most devout would surely prefer us to stop… or at least to pause.
So we shall. After all, it’s supposed to be a festive and happy time of year.
If you don’t know what the heck we’re talking about, refer to recent issues of the Friday Daily Cut here, here, and here.
We asked for feedback on what you think about Legacy Research and the products and services we provide. Boy, did your fellow subscribers respond… honestly, with no pulled punches.
We appreciate that, and we’ve done our best to answer as many as we can as quickly as we can. If you haven’t seen a reply here to your comment yet, don’t worry, it will come.
But today, we’ll turn to the positive side. Yes, we’ve received some positive feedback. We’ll share some of that with you today. But first, as always, let’s check in on what happened in the markets today…
Market Data
The S&P 500 closed down 0.01% to end the day at 4,719.19… the Nasdaq added 0.4%, to close at 14,813.92.
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil trades at $71.65, down five cents…
Gold is $2,033.70 per troy ounce, down $16.80…
And bitcoin is $42,234, down $784 from yesterday.
Now, back to the story of the day…
“Name’s Kris. Get used to it.”
First, an email from subscriber, David R.:
You are a brave editor to give out your direct email!
You invited your readers to ‘Let the hate mail begin!’ Sorry, I’ve never been good at hate mail. But you suggested that love mail is also welcome. Herewith, therefore, the latter.
I am enjoying the fresh format for the Daily Cut. The variety of topics, key metrics from the market’s day, winners and losers among ETFs, and your forthright style are all refreshing (especially the latter).
The changes you teased us about recently have me eagerly clicking open your missives to learn if TODAY is the day you will reveal more. (Maybe in time for Christmas?)
Actually, I open every email and read just about every word from each of Legacy’s analysts. Several years into my lifetime membership–which I hope will be around to enjoy for many more years–I have yet to become wealthy, except in terms of the valuable education I have received. My investing knowledge has multiplied 100X, in rough proportion to the number of mistakes I have made and the bouts of ‘red ink’ sickness I have suffered, especially in 2022. 😢
My only grumble has to do with the abrupt transition from Chris Lowe’s bearded visage on the ‘masthead’ to your considerably less hirsute mug. I had previously voiced this in the Feedback email, so it may sound familiar. After years of seeing Chris’ face each late afternoon, suddenly he was off to ‘other assignments’ at Legacy, and you were the new anchor on the Daily Cut news. I likened it to coming home one day to find that a beloved family member had moved out and been replaced by a stranger.
‘Who are you?!? And what happened to the person who used to live here?’
‘Oh, they moved on, and now I’m here.’
‘But who are you? And where did you come from? And why are you here?’
‘Name’s Kris. Get used to it.’
Clearly, Chris wasn’t fired, nor did he move on to pastures even greener than Ireland. From what I gather, you seem to be sort of a big shot, perhaps the chief editor. I don’t object to the change, but it would be considerate to introduce yourself, your background, why you are now wielding the scissors at the Daily Cut, and whether your role will be long-term or just to steer a course correction.
Keep up the punchy writing style. Maybe it will result in more love mail. 😊
– David R.
First, one comment. If David isn’t already a professional writer, he should consider it. Probably the best-constructed subscriber letter we’ve ever received.
Now, onto the subject. The abrupt handoff from Chris Lowe was your current editor’s fault. Chris had proposed more of a “tease” of your new editor’s profile in his final edition of the Daily Cut.
Our response was we didn’t think folks would find us interesting enough to care. We got that wrong.
Next, David is right, Chris didn’t get fired. He still writes the Legacy Inner Circle service. The most recent edition went out this week, where Chris interviewed our Director of Research, Jack Kasprzak. Inner Circle subscribers can watch the interview here.
Chris has also assumed your editor’s old role as Editor-in-Chief, which means he’ll spend more of his time behind the scenes than in front.
As for your editor, we’ve scattered a few things around, but here’s the concise story in one place…
From Start to Now
We began working as a small-cap stock specialist broker in the city of London back in 1995. We did that for about 18 months, before moving to the telecommunications industry.
It was an interesting change at an interesting time. We got to see some of the good and the bad of the dot-com boom from the inside.
We stuck at that until early 2003. That’s when we couldn’t help but “scratch the itch” to get back into the broking game. We specialized in U.S. stocks – another interesting time, especially the beginning of the commodities boom and the influence of China.
It was around that time we joined the newsletter industry. Freelance at first, maintaining our “day job.” But in 2008 we left the mainstream and began writing newsletters full-time.
We wrote daily e-letters (similar to this). We wrote a small-cap newsletter and launched technology, emerging markets, microcap, and macro-investing services. With such a diverse range of subjects, you would be correct to assume we don’t consider ourselves a specialist.
Your editor’s interest is looking for big investable trends. We launched the tech service in 2013. The Nasdaq more than doubled over the five years we ran the service.
We launched a China-focused emerging markets service in April 2014. We remember all the commentary at the time… and all our colleagues saying China’s market was about to crash.
We heard them. But we looked at the stock charts… and we thought, “I think it’s already crashed.” We were right. The Chinese market gained 153% over the next year.
Of course, as you can see the Chinese market did crash after. Fortunately, we were able to get most of our subscribers out with good profits, due to stop losses (never forget stop losses, folks).
The final leg is being Legacy Research’s Editor-in-Chief, a mostly behind-the-scenes role since 2019 (although we had a brief stint writing for the old Casey Daily Dispatch in 2021).
Now, along with our ongoing role managing Legacy Research’s Editorial team (the folks who produce all the research you read), we decided it was time to put our face in front of our readers.
To introduce some of the initiatives we’re planning for 2024 – including the new Report Card and other changes you’ll see in 2024. More announcements in the new year.
Plus, of course, we’ll help showcase the work of our experts and analysts… and from time to time, share our thoughts.
Hopefully, you’ll find all of that useful. If you do (or don’t), remember to let us know. Our personal email address is [email protected]
That’s it. This will be the final “Friday” Daily Cut for the year. Next week we’ll publish as normal Monday to Wednesday. And then, from Thursday until January 2, we’ll be on a holiday schedule.
We’ll publish a combination of “best-of” and guest essays during that period. We’ll resume normal service on Wednesday, January 3.
Unconnected Dots
Our main task at the Daily Cut is to try to “connect the dots.” That is, we help you figure out what events are about, what makes them important, what their consequences are, and what it all means for you.
But sometimes, we see the individual “dots,” but can’t yet figure out how they connect to anything. Maybe they never will connect to anything.
Regardless, if those unconnected dots feel as though they could be important, we’ll mention them here. And we’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
Today’s unconnected dots…
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As we expected, the euphoria and promise of Federal Reserve rate cuts is already wearing off. Not surprising, as Bloomberg reports:
Two Federal Reserve officials on Friday pushed back on growing expectations in financial markets for the central bank to cut interest rates as soon as March.
New York Fed President John Williams said on CNBC that it’s too early for officials to begin thinking about lowering borrowing costs as they consider whether policy is restrictive enough to get inflation back to 2%.
Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who votes on monetary policy next year, told Reuters that he expects two rate cuts in 2024 but not starting until the third quarter.
Our view? We’ll believe rate cuts when we see them. As we showed yesterday, the Fed’s predictive skills are no better than the “average Joe’s.”
If we had to bet, we’d bet on no cuts. But what the heck do we know?
More Markets
Today’s top-gaining ETFs…
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iShares MSCI Peru ETF (EPU) +3.4%
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iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) +1.7%
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First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) +1.3%
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Columbia U.S. ESG Equity Income ETF (ESGS) +1.2%
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ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD) +0.8%
Today’s biggest-losing ETFs…
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Nuveen Short-Term REIT ETF (NURE) -2.4%
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KraneShares MSCI All China Health Care Index ETF (KURE) -2.3%
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Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) -1.7%
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Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (FUTY) -1.7%
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iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF) -1.7%
Mailbag
If you have any questions or comments for our experts here at Legacy Research, we’d love to hear from you.
Write to us at [email protected] and just type “Daily Cut mailbag” in the subject line.
Cheers,
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Kris Sayce
Editor, The Daily Cut