Chris’ note: Most investors are bracing for a rough year in 2023. That’s only natural. Last year was brutal. And there’s no shortage of negativity in the mainstream press.
But today, I’m continuing my campaign to get you to see past the doom and gloom. I’m not saying everything is right with the world. It isn’t. But bear markets put stocks on sale. And that’s when the biggest profits are on offer.
That’s why, today, you’ll hear from master trader Jeff Clark. He’s our “bear market guide” here at Legacy Research.
While most investors were getting crushed in 2008, he had one of his best trading years. And last year, he scored wins of 144%… 175%… and 238% across his model portfolios.
And he says that while we’re not out of the woods yet… 2023 will be a year of opportunity for folks who are prepared.
There’s only one catch. When it’s time to buy stocks again, you won’t want to…
2023 will be a year of opportunity…
But there’s good news and bad news.
The good news is we’ll have a chance to buy high-quality stocks at dirt-cheap prices.
The bad news is the bear will take one more swipe at the stock market before we get to the good news.
That will scare most folks. They’ll hit the sell button in a panic.
But as you’ll see today, that’s exactly the time to step in and buy.
Recession Ahead
Why do I think things will get worse before they get better?
As a trader, I’m a charts guy.
And here’s a monthly chart of the Treasury “yield curve”…
This chart shows the difference – or “spread” – in yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month T-bill.
Normally, the yield curve is positive. The further out in time a bond matures, the higher its yield will be. This rewards investors for the extra time risk.
A negative yield curve is when short-term bills offer a higher yield than long-term notes. And it often happens right before a recession.
The first three red arrows on the chart mark yield curve inversions right before recessions hit.
They also happened right before big stock market falls.
When the yield curve reached its most negative levels, stocks were closer to their bull market highs than they were to their bear market lows.
By the time the bear markets ended, in December 2002 and March 2009, the yield curve was well into positive territory. Same goes for the COVID-inspired plunge that bottomed in March 2020.
If history is any judge, we’ll want to see the yield curve go positive before we get the all-clear on stocks.
We’re Going on a Bargain Hunt
Take another look at the chart above.
The yield curve is deeper into negative territory now than at any time over the past 30 years.
That tells us we’re still months away from the end of the bear market.
But that’s not a bad thing…
Bear markets are good.
They correct the excesses that build up in the final stages of a bull market. That’s when too much money chases stock prices higher. This jams up valuations to nosebleed levels.
Bear markets are painful for everyone. And they’re particularly painful for folks who are overly exposed, or even leveraged, to stocks.
But they are also opportunities for bargain hunters who’ve kept some dry powder.
There’s only one problem… When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to.
Don’t Let This Opportunity Pass You By
I’ve been trading professionally for more than 30 years.
And I can tell you from experience, it’s not easy to buy stocks when they’ve been plummeting.
It’s not just the falling prices that are scary. It’s also the negative headlines and the panic in the air.
Think 2008 or the pandemic-induced crash in early 2020. At times like these, folks become paralyzed. So, they let rare opportunities to buy stocks on the cheap pass them by.
I’m here to make sure you don’t do that in 2023.
Instead, I want you to join me in having the courage to buy stocks when they go on sale.
You don’t have to put large sums at risk. You can set aside a small amount each month.
And don’t worry about trying to buy stocks at their absolute lows. Nobody does that consistently.
But if you can buy quality companies at bargain prices, you’ll profit over time.
I’m looking out for that opportunity sometime in the first half of this year.
I’ll be in touch again when the time is right.
Best regards and good trading,
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Jeff Clark